The Olympic Medal Paradox
Why bronze medalists smile more and what we can learn from it.
📝 Words: 1,020 | 🕰️ Estimated Reading time: about 5 mins
As the Summer Olympics in Paris continue, it's the perfect time for another Olympics-themed newsletter.
For many, the 1992 Barcelona Summer Olympics is best remembered for featuring the greatest team ever assembled: the USA basketball team, famously known as "The Dream Team"
What people witnessed at the 1992 Barcelona Olympics was not only the dominance of the USA men's basketball team1, but also - and more importantly for this newsletter - a real-life example of loss aversion.
Loss aversion is essentially when we feel the pain of a loss more intensely than the pleasure of an equivalent gain2.
Medalists and Loss Aversion
A fascinating analysis3 of the emotional reactions of 🥉bronze and 🥈silver medalists in Barcelona revealed that bronze medalists tend to be happier than silver medalists. And this was true both at the conclusion of their events and on the medal podium.
At first glance, this might seem counterintuitive.
Wouldn’t you expect the silver medalists to feel better?
🥈Silver medalists often focus on the gold medal they “almost” won, seeing their silver as a near miss, or a “loss”. In contrast, 🥉bronze medalists are just happy they made it onto the podium, thinking "At least I won a medal".
Silver medal winners consider any other outcome than not winning a gold (e.g. arriving second) as a “loss”. Bronze winners looked downwards, towards 4th place, and not winning a medal at all. Therefore, any outcome above “not winning a medal” (e.g. arriving third) is perceived as a “gain”.
A picture is worth a thousand words:
And here’s a fresh snapshot from Paris 2024:
How does the psychology of medalists relate to our everyday life?
Research on counterfactual thinking - our tendency to imagine alternative outcomes - shows that our emotional responses to events are influenced by what we think “might have been”.
We often find ourselves caught between upward counterfactual thinking (wishing we had taken a different path) and downward counterfactual thinking (feeling grateful for what we have achieved).
Silver medalists are likely engaging in upward counterfactual thinking, imagining how they could have won gold. This focus on a better alternative can lead to feelings of regret and dissatisfaction. On the other hand, bronze medalists are more likely to engage in downward counterfactual thinking, appreciating that they avoided finishing without a medal.
The happiness of the medallists depended on whether they felt they gained or lost, given their initial reference point.
Ok, how this can help me?
Consider how often you find yourself caught between wishing you had taken a different path (upward counterfactuals) and feeling grateful for what you have achieved (downward counterfactuals).
An example of upward counterfactuals is “I wish I had taken that other job instead of this one 5 years ago – my life would be so much better.”
An example of downward counterfactuals is “I’m so thankful I studied XYZ in university instead of ABC like I had originally planned – I love doing [something related to XYZ] and I never would have gotten to do that.”
According to this study in 2017, “upward” counterfactuals are associated with current and future depression. If we find ourselves constantly dwelling on what might have been, it can lead to rumination and regret, which can keep us stuck in the past and neglecting the present.
On the contrary, “downward” counterfactuals tend to be more associated with psychological health and satisfaction.
Reflecting on the past can be useful when it helps us learn from our mistakes and make better decisions in the future. However, it’s crucial to focus on the present and future, rather than getting stuck in regret.
How detrimental some of these thoughts can be? ⬇️
If only I had launched my startup earlier, we would be more successful now.
I wish I had taken that managerial role offer three years ago - if I had, I would be further along in my career and in a better position.
I should have chosen a different business partner.
I wish I had invested more time in building relationships with senior management early on - if I had, I would be in a better position for this promotion.
We should have expanded to international markets sooner.
If only I had accepted that international assignment two years ago, I would have gained valuable global experience and advanced my career faster.
The best people I’ve met have a strong bias for action. They don’t dwell on the past but stay focused on the present and future.
They understand that the past cannot be changed and that their control lies only in what is happening now and what will happen next.
While easier said than done, this is the reality I’ve experienced.
What to do when we’re trapped in counterfactual thinking?
Although I'm still learning and I’m not a professional, I've found two strategies that have helped me reduce upward counterfactual thinking:
Focusing on the present, observing what I am thinking and how I am feeling as if I was an observer from the outside. By creating this “mental distance”, I can recognize my emotions without getting caught up in them.
Seeking professional guidance from a therapist. Nowadays it is extremely easy to find the best solutions based on the needs, also online (e.g. Brightside, Talkspace, or BetterHelp).
Enjoyed this Olympics-themed newsletter? Read this other one:
See you next Sunday 🗓️
Thanks for reading,
Giacomo
They were defeating each opponent by an average of 44 points.
They say that "comparison" is the thief of joy.
It's so easy to feel bad when we're comparing ourselves to the best of the best.
But finding gratitude for everything we already have is a sure path to joy 💙
This is a fantastic exploration of counterfactual thinking and its impact on our mental well-being. It's so true that we often find ourselves caught between wishing for a different past and being grateful for what we have. The examples of medalists' thinking patterns are particularly enlightening. Focusing on the present and future, rather than getting stuck in regret, is a powerful takeaway.